Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
