A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
